Prognostic Value of Serum Creatinine and Effect of Treatment of Hypertension on Renal Function

The Hypertension Detection and Follow-up Program followed up 10,940 persons for 5 years in a community-based, randomized, controlled trial of treatment for hypertension. Participants were randomized to one of two treatment groups, stepped care and referred care. The primary end point of the study was all-cause mortality, with morbid events involving the heart, brain, and kidney as secondary end points. Loss of renal function, ascertained by a change in serum creatinine, was among these secondary events. Baseline serum creatinine concentration had a significant prognostic value for 8-year mortality. For persons with a serum creatinine concentration greater than or equal to 1.7 mg/dl, 8-year mortality was more than three times that of all other participants. The estimated 5-year incidence of substantial decline in renal function was 21.7/1,000 in the stepped-care group and 24.6/1,000 in the referred-care group. Among persons with a baseline serum creatinine level between 1.5 and 1.7 mg/dl, the 5-year incidence of decline was 113.3/1,000 (stepped care) and 226.6/1,000 (referred care) (p<0.01). The incidence of decline in renal function was greater in men, blacks, and older adults, as well as in those with higher entry diastolic blood pressure. Among persons with a baseline serum creatinine level greater than or equal to 1.7 mg/dl, serum creatinine concentration declined by 25% or more in 28.6% of stepped-care and 25.2% of referred-care participants. Although the incidence of clinically significant hypercreatininemia in a hypertensive population is low, an elevated serum creatinine concentration is a very potent independent risk factor for mortality. The slightly lower rate of development of hypercreatininemia and the higher rate of improvement in stepped-care compared with referred-care participants is consistent with the belief that aggressive treatment of hypertension may reduce renal damage and the associated increased risk of death. (Hypertension 1989;13(suppl I):I-80-1-93)